War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Widely Criticised Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with key opposition groups banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the freedoms of free speech, assembly or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under rebel administration presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the results in the initial round do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has called for negotiations to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".