‘The Situation is Dire’: War on Iran Constricts India's LPG Supplies.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's kitchens.
As aerial attacks on Iran hinder energy deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of kitchen fuel are dwindling across India, pushing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is filled with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.
"Conditions are critical. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a official of the an industry group.
Most eateries run either on industrial fuel canisters or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being noticed across the country. "A lot of restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern states. People are switching to coal and wood and electric cookers to keep their operations going."
City-Specific Fallout
In Mumbai, accounts say up to a fifth of eateries are already completely or partially closed as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some establishments say their gas stocks have dwindled with scarce alternatives. "Coffee is the sole item we can prepare and nothing else - it is extremely difficult. Businesses are going to suffer," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant managers are rushing to adjust. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that closures are changing as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a fluid situation."
Retailers report a surge in sales of electronic cooking appliances, with some saying they are running out of them.
Authority's View
Yet, the government states there is adequate supply.
India has more than 300 million home fuel subscribers and authorities say stocks are being reallocated to households as tensions from the war in the Gulf affect energy markets.
About a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the vital passage now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to increase LPG output for domestic use, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for critical services such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On online networks, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of scooters outside a petrol pump. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.
According to analysis from market experts, concerns about India's broader petroleum stocks may be premature.
India imports the overwhelming majority of its crude oil. Around half of its petroleum shipments - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the shortfall could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on vessel tracking and expert analysis, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, lessening India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.
Cooking Gas: The Critical Weakness
The key weakness is LPG, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can tweak operations to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.
In short: "Crude supply risk can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to watch in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the anxiety on the ground is not just limited availability but uneven distribution - and the usual problem of stockpiling.
An industry representative alleges exploitative practices.
"Suppliers are misusing the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being stockpiled and auctioned off."
For now, India's petroleum stocks may be buffered by global trade flows. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.
