Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.

A surprise raid on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the country's president. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That is precisely how Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, spiriting away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of international law and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The mission was executed competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: swift, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she stated.

A Network Unravels

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, watched other key allies fall from power or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a pro-American administration were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'friends' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Ousting Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”